LK INNOVATE

Writer and Analyst: Dr. Lokman Khan

The escalating conflict between Iran and Israel has entered its second week, bringing the world to the brink of a new catastrophe. While the US has so far been indirectly involved, supplying arms to Israel and intercepting missiles over Jordanian airspace, a crucial question looms: what if the US directly engages militarily? As a concerned global citizen, I believe that direct US intervention would unleash a devastating disaster, not just for the Middle East, but for the entire world. Though President Trump has issued threats, he hasn’t yet committed the US to direct involvement.

The Perilous US Military Presence in the Middle East

The long-standing US military presence in the Middle East has historically been a volatile element for regional stability. As we’ve seen in Iraq and Afghanistan, military intervention often leads to prolonged conflict, instability, and the rise of extremism. Currently, the US maintains significant military assets in the Middle East, including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the Navy’s Fifth Fleet in Bahrain, army bases in Kuwait, and other installations in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. If the US were to directly engage in this conflict, these military bases could become legitimate targets for Iranian retaliation.

Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh has already warned that if the US gets involved, the entire region will turn into “hell.” Israel might require US assistance to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear facilities, which would escalate the war many times over. This growing military presence won’t just heighten regional tensions; it significantly increases the risk of unforeseen conflicts that could become impossible to control. Furthermore, European countries are gravely concerned about a new refugee crisis escalating from this conflict, particularly given Iran’s population of 90 million.

Three Potential Outcomes of US Intervention

Should the US directly intervene in this conflict, three major scenarios could unfold:

• Israel’s Limited War Capacity: Lacking strategic depth, Israel would find it incredibly difficult to sustain a prolonged war. If the conflict extends, Israel risks suffering existential damage and experiencing mass emigration, threatening its very existence.
• Iran’s Resilient Underground Infrastructure: Despite widespread destruction, Iran won’t easily buckle. Decades of preparation since the Iran-Iraq War have created a fortified “underground Iran,” complete with missile cities and military bases. This subterranean military infrastructure would allow them to continue resisting under any circumstances. While a US military assault might devastate Iran’s surface, their underground military capabilities would remain intact, enabling long-term resistance. In terms of military limitations, only the US could attempt a ground invasion, but success is highly unlikely. Iran’s challenging geography and inherent resilience make it a formidable opponent for any ground operation.
• US Imperial Decline: A protracted war could bankrupt the US, provoke internal unrest, and ignite a nationalist backlash against Zionist lobbies. Lessons from Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan show how prolonged conflicts can break a superpower’s military and economic backbone. This war could cost trillions of dollars, severely damaging the US economy and leading to a decline in its global military dominance.

The Strait of Hormuz and Global Economic Impact

Iran’s most potent “trump card” is the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil trade flows through this narrow waterway. If Iran were to close this strait, the global supply of crude oil and gas would be severely disrupted. This would cause oil prices to skyrocket, leading to a devastating impact on the world economy.

Specifically, major oil-importing countries like India and China would be severely affected. Rising oil prices would increase transportation costs, trigger inflation, and bring about the specter of a global economic recession. Already, the Iran-Israel conflict has begun to increase crude oil import costs. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would not only affect oil but also hinder the movement of ships carrying fertilizers and other goods, creating significant negative impacts on the agricultural and industrial sectors worldwide.

Political, Military, and Human Costs

• Political: Direct US intervention would redraw the power dynamics in the Middle East. Relations between countries like Iran, Russia, and China could strengthen further, pushing towards a multipolar world order. Many US-allied nations in the Middle East might also find themselves divided in this crisis. This would weaken US global influence and raise questions about its credibility on the international stage.
• Military: If this conflict escalates into a larger war, it would redefine military power in the Middle East. Both sides could use their full military capabilities, increasing the risk of nuclear weapons use. Alongside conventional warfare, cyber-attacks, drone warfare, and asymmetric tactics could be employed, leading to unimaginable military casualties.
• Humanitarian: Any war exacts the heaviest price from ordinary people. Direct military intervention would trigger a new humanitarian crisis in the Middle East. Millions would be displaced, facing shortages of food and water, and collapsing medical services. Innocent lives would be lost on a massive scale, creating a dark chapter in history. We have already witnessed this grim reality in the Gaza Strip; widespread new conflict would mean even more unfathomable human suffering.

Domestic Fallout in the US and Shifts in Media Narratives

Direct US involvement in this war could also lead to severe domestic consequences. There’s a risk of widespread blame on Zionist groups, echoing Weimar-era antisemitism and exacerbating internal polarization. Already, some American conservative figures are turning against established Zionist narratives, potentially reshaping political discourse. Rising ethnic tensions could lead to violence targeting both Jewish and Muslim communities in the US, threatening the nation’s social cohesion.

Closing Reflection

The repeating cycles of war and power dynamics are a destructive reality of human history. Lessons from the past show us that military solutions often create new problems and bring long-term suffering. For the United States, the wisest course of action now is to step back from military intervention. Supporting Israel’s right to self-defense is one thing; directly engaging in a larger regional conflict is entirely another. Considering the global economy, political stability, and most importantly, the lives of countless people, the US should distance itself from the volatile situation in the Middle East. Prioritizing diplomatic efforts and de-escalation to find a peaceful resolution is the most urgent task. Otherwise, this conflict will push not just the Middle East, but the entire world, into a new darkness, with grave and irreversible consequences.