LK INNOVATE

✍️ Writer and Analyst: Dr. Lokman Khan

The recent bombing of Iran’s peaceful nuclear research sites by the United States, under the direct orders of Donald Trump, has plunged the world into an extremely unstable situation. This reckless act has not only shaken the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East but has also rattled the entire global economic and security framework. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), designed to shield the world from the madness of nuclear arms race, now holds no obligation for Iran. If Iran now decides to withdraw from this treaty and begin developing nuclear bombs with the active assistance of nuclear-armed nations like North Korea and Pakistan, the international community will have no moral ground to blame them. I strongly believe this is the path Iran will take. They’re not foolish; they’ve been preparing for such an inevitable conflict for a long time. Confirmed reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) this morning indicate no radiation detected after the strike, meaning all sensitive materials were removed beforehand. This attack, intended to crush Iran’s nuclear aspirations, will in reality only fuel them further.

The Israel-Iran Conflict: An Endless Cycle

Israel’s primary pretext for attacking Iran was to destroy its nuclear capabilities. The United States, as Israel’s staunchest ally, has now “completed” that task. On paper, Israel no longer has a direct reason to continue the conflict. But we all know the reality of Middle Eastern conflicts is never that simple. Israel won’t let this opportunity pass. They won’t stop. And Iran will retaliate with full force. This conflict has only just begun and will soon escalate into a prolonged, bloody war.

Geographically, Iran is significantly larger than Israel and a strategically complex nation. Iran has long prepared for such a conflict, moving all its critical military and strategic assets underground. Its military installations and production facilities are scattered across the country and heavily fortified, making them virtually impossible to destroy with surface attacks. Israel might succeed in demolishing some empty buildings or infrastructure above ground, but this will barely diminish Iran’s defensive capabilities. Iran will be able to retaliate from underground, using its extensive network. This asymmetrical warfare will trap Israel, as its limited military capacity is insufficient for a long-term conflict within Iran’s vast territory.

The Unimaginable Consequences of a Ground Invasion: America’s Quagmire

The only way for Israel to halt this conflict is to invade Iran. However, Israel lacks the military capacity to do so alone. This audacious task could only be undertaken by the United States. Yet, if America makes this suicidal decision, it will be a quagmire that dwarfs the horrors of the Iraq War. When America invaded Iraq, many Middle Eastern countries, including Saudi Arabia, allowed their land and airspace to be used. This time, the situation is entirely different. In the event of aggression against Iran, Middle Eastern nations will hesitate to assist the U.S., knowing the potentially devastating Iranian retaliation and their own vested interests in the region.

According to U.S. Department of Defense Casualty Status, as of June 16, 2025, Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF) has resulted in 4,419 U.S. military deaths. Iran is militarily, geographically, and psychologically ten times more dangerous to invade than Iraq. Iran is not merely a military power; it is the center of a civilization with thousands of years of culture and a strong sense of nationalism. If the United States dares to invade Iran to appease its Israeli allies, the colossal and untold casualties among U.S. soldiers would be unimaginable. The human and economic cost would be astronomical, pushing the American economy to the brink of collapse.

The Strait of Hormuz: A Chokehold on the Global Economy

One of the most terrifying economic dimensions of this conflict is the Strait of Hormuz. It’s one of the world’s most vital oil supply routes, through which nearly a fifth of global oil passes. Closing the Strait of Hormuz is a relatively easy task for Iran, given its military control over the area. However, this action would have a catastrophic impact on the global economy. Disruptions in oil supply would trigger a worldwide energy crisis, send oil prices soaring, and the ripple effects would engulf both developed and developing economies. Global inflation would surge, production would plummet, and billions of people would fall into poverty. This single act could push the world into a deep economic recession far worse than the 2008 financial crisis.

Targeting U.S. Presence: Retaliation Through Proxies

Even if Iran doesn’t directly target U.S. military bases, it will certainly target the U.S. presence in the Middle East. However, they’ll likely keep their hands clean. Instead, they have numerous proxy forces active across the Middle East. From Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militia groups in Iraq, Iran possesses an extensive network ready to launch hypersonic missiles and drone attacks on U.S. installations and allies. This proxy warfare will further endanger the lives of U.S. soldiers and severely damage American influence in the Middle East. Such attacks would also threaten America’s long-standing allies in the region, further destabilizing an already volatile area.

Global Instability and Uncertainty

Donald Trump’s utterly irresponsible and reckless action has pushed the world into extreme instability and uncertainty. Whatever semblance of stability remained has shattered. The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty now seems like a mockery, as a nuclear power has attacked a peaceful nuclear research facility without provocation. This incident will encourage the proliferation of nuclear weapons, as every nation will now feel the necessity of acquiring nuclear capabilities for self-protection.

The United Nations and other international organizations have largely played the role of silent spectators in the wake of this attack, raising questions about their effectiveness and their role in establishing global peace. Respect for international law is eroding, and powerful nations are seemingly receiving a license to act as they please.

The most terrifying question now is: Is the world truly on the brink of World War III? The signs we’re witnessing – aggression, treaty violations, proxy wars, and the impending catastrophe for the global economy – all point towards a larger conflict. Donald Trump’s single decision may have pushed the world into a chasm so deep that recovery is almost impossible. The future of humanity now faces profound uncertainty. If this war truly begins, it will be one of the darkest chapters in human history.